SHOP
Shopify Inc.
Quarterly revenue, EPS, free cash flow, valuation, and Rule of 40 scores for Shopify Inc..
Coverage
Shopify Q4 2025: $3.67B Revenue Beat, $2B Buyback — So Why Is the Stock Down?
Shopify beats on revenue and GMV, announces $2B buyback, guides to 30%+ Q1 growth — but the stock drops 9%. We break down what spooked investors and why the selloff may be overdone.
SHOP Trades ~38% Below Analyst Targets
Shares at ~$112 vs. consensus target ~$180; Simply Wall St flags undervalued by ~12%, ecosystem partnerships (AI/subscription migrations) growing despite dip.
Sharp Selloff: SHOP Down ~16% YTD
Stock plunged amid AI disruption fears in software and valuation reset after 2025 surge; analysts maintain positive long-term view on agentic commerce.
Analyst Upgrades Ahead of Earnings (Arete to Buy)
Upgraded to Buy post-selloff on strong Q4 outlook; focus on 'solid fundamentals' and agentic commerce/AI tailwinds.
1 Growth Stock Down 16% to Buy and Hold
Contrarian buy case despite YTD decline; strong 2025 momentum (32%+ revenue growth in Q3), secular e-commerce/AI tailwinds outweigh volatility.
Earnings release dates
| Quarter | End date | Publication date | Release |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 Q2 | 2026-06-30 | 2026-08-06 | Details → |
| 2026 Q1 | 2026-03-31 | 2026-05-07 | Details → |
| 2025 Q4 | 2025-12-31 | 2026-02-11 | Details → |
| 2025 Q3 | 2025-09-30 | 2025-11-04 | Details → |
| 2025 Q2 | 2025-06-30 | 2025-08-07 | Details → |
| 2025 Q1 | 2025-03-31 | 2025-05-08 | Details → |
| 2024 Q4 | 2024-12-31 | 2025-02-11 | Details → |
| 2024 Q3 | 2024-09-30 | 2024-11-12 | Details → |
| 2024 Q2 | 2024-06-30 | 2024-08-07 | Details → |
| 2024 Q1 | 2024-03-31 | 2024-05-08 | Details → |
| 2023 Q4 | 2023-12-31 | 2024-02-13 | Details → |
| 2023 Q3 | 2023-09-30 | 2023-11-02 | Details → |
| 2023 Q2 | 2023-06-30 | 2023-08-03 | Details → |
| 2023 Q1 | 2023-03-31 | 2023-05-04 | Details → |
Company History
Post-pandemic reset emphasized margins and free cash flow; laid foundation for 2025 surge
Peak euphoria on AI integrations, merchant growth, and market share gains
Stock soared from lows ~$77 to ATH ~$179-182 on strong financials and e-commerce rebound
EPS $0.27 beat, revenue $2.84B beat; 32% YoY growth reinforced profitability story
Launched AI tools (Sidekick, agentic features, Universal Commerce Protocol); expanded to intelligent commerce OS
Stock fell to ~$119 amid market rotation and software sector pressure
Volatility ahead of earnings; narrative shifts to AI/agentic commerce as next growth driver
Pullback on valuation concerns, broader tech/AI fears, and pre-earnings caution
