This site stores prediction-market prices as data. Twenty-nine companies in the corpus carry prediction-market data, and fifteen of them hold contracts — all captured at a single instant, 2026-02-11T15:28:00.587Z.
Two of those contracts are about Robinhood. One of them priced Robinhood's entry into the prediction-market business at 24%.
For the quarter ended 2026-06-30, Robinhood reported $156M of event-contract revenue on 13.6 billion contracts traded.
What the 24% is, exactly
The stored block does not contain a field reading 24. It contains this:
| question | probability | outcome | volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Robinhood launches prediction market through MIAXdx by March 31? | 76 | No | $281,772 |
| Robinhood self-certifies sports event contract by March 31? | 72 | No | $1,614 |
The probability attaches to the outcome side, and on both of these that side is No. So the first row is a market putting 76% on Robinhood not launching through MIAXdx by March 31 — which is an implied 24% that it would. The subtraction is the whole derivation, and it is the same convention the rest of the snapshot uses.
The second row is here for completeness and then set aside. At $1,614 of lifetime volume — and $0 in the twenty-four hours before the capture — it is too thin to carry an inference. The MIAXdx contract had $281,772 behind it, and $6,318 of that traded in the day before the snapshot.
This is not a scorecard
The contract asked something narrow and dated: a launch through MIAXdx, by March 31. The revenue line is a different question over a different period, and this repo does not record how that contract resolved. Nothing here establishes that the market was wrong, and no sentence below should be read as saying so.
What the repo supports is the juxtaposition: 24% in February, $156M in the June quarter. The reader can do what they like with it.
What the business did
From the capture of Robinhood's Q2 2026 release — the quarter ended 2026-06-30, reported on this site in July and stored in full at the release capture:
| Q2 2026 | |
|---|---|
| Event-contract revenue | $156M |
| Transaction-based revenues | $776M |
| Total net revenues | $1,308M |
| Event contracts traded | 13.6B |
Event contracts are 11.9% of total net revenues and 20.1% of transaction-based revenues — a fifth of the line Robinhood is best known for.
Robinhood characterises both the revenue and the contract count as up more than 10x year over year. That is the company's own wording and it is worth leaving as the company's: the capture's year-ago contract base is marked ~1.1–1.3B (est.), an estimate back-solved from the release rather than a reported figure, so no multiple is computed from it here. Event contracts existed at Robinhood before this quarter. The growth is the company's characterisation; the $156M and the 13.6B are the reported numbers.
The CFO's quote from the release puts event contracts among the record lines, naming "new highs across equity, option, and event contract volumes" and thirteen business lines now past $100M in annualised revenue.
The snapshot is one instant, and no stock page shows it
Two things about that February capture are worth stating plainly, because both are easy to misread.
It is one observation per contract, not a feed. There is a single timestamp across all fifteen tickers that hold contracts. Nothing in the repo shows a price moving, a market repricing, or a trend. Any sentence about what "the market did" over time would be describing data this site does not have.
It renders on no stock page. Both Robinhood contracts carry an end date of 2026-03-31, and the site's stock pages drop contracts whose end date has passed. The February pricing survived in the repository and reached no reader through any page until this one. That is a rendering rule rather than a data gap — the record is intact; it is simply absent from every page built to show it.
There is one more provenance detail. Fifteen tickers hold contracts and every one of them is stamped that same February instant. The other fourteen — AVGO, CRWD, CVX, DDOG, DELL, KO, MRVL, OXY, SCHW, SMCI, SNDK, SPCX, UBER and XYZ — carry an empty block stamped 2026-07-31T00:00:00.000Z. Exact midnight is a date written into a datetime field rather than an observed capture time, and the block behind it holds zero contracts: a July refresh that returned nothing, preserved as though it were a reading.
The scale, stated carefully
The entire stored snapshot — 57 contracts across 15 tickers — carries $18,096,350 of volume. That figure spans two venues, and the distinction matters if anyone quotes it: $18,019,123 across 53 Polymarket contracts, plus $77,227 across four Kalshi contracts on AAPL, AMZN, GOOGL and JPM.
Robinhood booked $156M of event-contract revenue in one quarter.
These are different measures and cannot be netted against each other. One is dollar volume traded on a venue, captured at an instant; the other is revenue a broker recognised over three months. A comparison of the two settles nothing about relative size. What it does show is the order of magnitude: the whole of the prediction-market pricing this site stores, across every company it tracks, is a fraction of one quarter's revenue at one of the companies being priced.
That is the part worth holding onto. This site has used prediction-market odds as evidence before, and concluded on review that it was the wrong kind of evidence — a forecast built on Polymarket odds, a Kalshi mention and three anonymous posts, with none of the twenty-two quarters of company data the site already held. The February Robinhood contract is a better use of the same source: not as a prediction to follow, but as a dated record of what a market believed, sitting next to what the company later reported.
Contract questions, probabilities, outcome sides, volumes and timestamps are from the prediction-market data we store for every company, captured at 2026-02-11T15:28:00.587Z; the corpus totals (57 contracts, 15 tickers, $18,096,350, and the Polymarket/Kalshi split) are counted across those blocks at HEAD. Robinhood's revenue, contract volumes and the CFO quote are from this site's capture of the Q2 2026 release for the quarter ended 2026-06-30, filed as Exhibit 99.1 to an 8-K under accession 0001783879-26-000113. The 24% is derived as 100 − 76 from the stored probability on the No side; the 11.9% and 20.1% shares are derived from the three revenue figures shown above. No share price, price move or market-capitalisation figure appears here — the corpus stores no previous close for any company.